The recent floods in Lagos and across key African markets represent a growing economic and investment risk, particularly within the real estate sector. But more than this, it is challenging the cardinal assumption that “location is everything in real estate”.
Our analysts, like everyone else, have more questions than answers.
- Will the prime neighbourhoods of Lagos and Accra still hold the same value if residents are not able to leave their homes, their cars and properties are submerged, or their families are totally displaced for weeks?
- Will property values, investor confidence, and insurance markets remain the same?
- How should we think differently about infrastructure planning and urban development?
In Lagos, floods are no longer confined to traditionally low-lying communities. Neighbourhoods once considered safe, including parts of the Lagos mainland, now flood just as frequently, as torrential rainfall overwhelms ageing drainage systems and critical infrastructure.
Interestingly, Lagos is not alone
The flooding in Lagos is part of a broader urban resilience challenge unfolding across Africa's fast-growing cities, where climate change, rapid urbanisation, and most importantly, “a lack of forward-thinking infrastructure planning” are amplifying flood risk. Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire continue to experience recurrent flash floods affecting communities like Weija, Kaneshie, Alajo, Adabraka, Avenor, and Odawna/Kwame Nkrumah Circle in Accra, and Attécoubé, particularly the Mossikro neighbourhood, Yopougon, Abobo, Port-Bouët, and Anyama in Abidjan, disrupting families, properties, and commercial activity.
The Nairobi Metropolitan Area remains among the most vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly El Niño-induced rainfall, with the most recent event occurring in Q1 to Q2 2026. Neighbourhoods including Parklands, South C, Syokimau, Athi River, and parts of Westlands have experienced significant flooding impacts. These events across the board have led to 37 recorded casualties, with unquantifiable economic impact.
Lagos mirrors these challenges, with recurring flood exposure extending across both prime and middle-income residential neighbourhoods including Lekki Phase 1, Victoria Island, Ikoyi, Ajah, Ikorodu, Agege, and Maryland, where ageing infrastructure is exposing decades of inadequate infrastructure planning.
But why are African cities becoming more prone to flooding?
The flooding recently witnessed across key African cities is driven by a common set of challenges. Foremost among them is urban pressure. Africa's urban population as of 2025 was growing at an estimated 3.2%, more than double the world’s 1.4%. This places immense pressure on infrastructure and urban planning systems that were never designed to accommodate such growth. As cities expand, informal settlements and even formal developments increasingly encroach on floodplains, wetlands and riparian corridors, reducing natural drainage capacity and heightening flood risk.
Compounding this is the widespread deterioration and underinvestment in stormwater drainage infrastructure, much of which has failed to keep pace with urban expansion and changing rainfall patterns. Additionally, weak enforcement of zoning regulations, building codes, and waste management systems, especially in places like Lagos and Accra, has further exacerbated the problem. This is felt particularly in Lagos and parts of Accra, where both the city's unique coastal geography and low-lying terrain have made it especially vulnerable. Approximately 62% of Lagos' land area, for instance, comprises water bodies and wetlands, with a further 12% susceptible to seasonal flooding due to the large network of islands, creeks, and lagoons surrounding the city.
The flood is reshaping Africa’s real estate markets
The consequences extend far beyond flooded streets, increasingly affecting the fundamentals of real estate performance and investment. Property losses remain the most immediate impact, yet with insurance penetration estimated at below 5% across much of Africa, the overwhelming majority of homeowners and developers have little financial protection against flood-related damage. Flooding is also beginning to reshape property valuations. In Nigeria, for example, premium locations such as Lekki, Victoria Island, Ikoyi, and other high-end neighbourhoods have historically commanded high prices due to their exclusivity, infrastructure, and accessibility. Today, however, repeated flooding in these areas is forcing buyers and investors to reassess location risk.
“The recent floods across Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, and other parts of Africa are likely to reshape, not diminish the real estate investment landscape. Investors are expected to become more selective, placing greater emphasis on climate resilience, environmental due diligence, and long-term sustainability. Markets and assets that can demonstrate resilience through sound planning, infrastructure, and governance are likely to attract stronger capital inflows. At the same time, those with unmanaged flood risk may experience higher financing costs, reduced valuations, and weaker investor demand,” Said Yemi Stephen, Managing Partner at Estate Links.
Beyond this, submerged roads, residential estates, commercial centres and transport corridors continue to disrupt businesses, interrupt essential services and reduce economic productivity. This is in addition to fatalities and people getting displaced. Collectively, these risks are also eroding investor confidence, as institutional investors increasingly incorporate environmental and climate resilience into their investment decisions, making flood-prone assets more difficult to finance, insure and sustain over the long term.
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Based on this comparative data, it is evident that flooding has become a widespread urban challenge across Africa. The four countries we tracked for this article have recorded significant human and socio-economic impacts.
What should stakeholders do differently?
As extreme weather events become more frequent, flood resilience has evolved from an environmental consideration into a strategic imperative for Africa's real estate sector. From Lagos to Accra and Nairobi, cities are grappling with how to sustain urban growth while adapting to infrastructure systems that are increasingly unable to withstand a changing climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across many parts of Africa, reinforcing the need for proactive adaptation. As such;
- Governments must move beyond reactive emergency response by investing in resilient infrastructure that can withstand increasingly frequent extreme weather events. At the same time, regulators must strengthen enforcement of zoning and building regulations that reflect today's climate realities, prevent developments in flood-prone and riparian areas, modernise ageing drainage infrastructure, promote climate-resilient urban planning, and expand flood forecasting and early warning systems.
- Developers can no longer afford to build for yesterday's climate. Beyond regulatory compliance, they should undertake hydrological and drainage assessments before land acquisition, integrate climate resilience into project design from the outset, and position flood-resilient developments as a long-term value proposition for increasingly climate-conscious buyers. Building resilience should be viewed not as an added cost, but as a competitive advantage that safeguards asset value over time.
- Likewise, buyers and investors must treat flood resilience with the same importance as location, returns and other market fundamentals. This requires conducting rigorous due diligence by reviewing a property's flood history, independently assessing drainage capacity and topography, and incorporating official flood-risk forecasts from meteorological agencies into investment decisions. Flood-risk classification should become a mandatory underwriting input rather than a supplementary check.
“Investors and clients are becoming more cautious, particularly in flood-prone locations, and I am seeing greater emphasis on environmental due diligence, resilience, and long-term asset sustainability before investment decisions are made”. Akin Opatola, FIABCI President, Nigeria Chapter.
- Property managers and renters also have a critical role in strengthening resilience. Routine maintenance of drainage systems, proper waste disposal to prevent blocked waterways, adherence to estate emergency preparedness plans, and prompt reporting of drainage defects can significantly reduce the impact of flooding. Building resilience is a shared responsibility that extends beyond government and developers to everyone who occupies and manages urban spaces.
“Climate risk is now an investment risk, and resilience is no longer a luxury; it is the foundation of sustainable real estate and long-term investor confidence,” added Gbenga Olaniyan, Chairman, Estate Links Group.
If you need bespoke research on this market or any other asset class across the continent, send an email to our advisory team at advisory@fortrenandcompany.com.
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With just 3,577square meters in land mass, Lagos is home to over 17 million residents, making it one of the most densely populated cities in the world. One of the most pronounced effects of clear overpopulation in overcrowded cities like Lagos is the increase in informal settlements, land grabbing, and illegal construction. Internal data from the Lagos State government shows that more than 349 buildings have been erected illegally and do not comply with the planning laws set out by the state. In response, the Lagos State Building Control Agency (LASBCA) and the Ministry of Physical Planning and Urban Development have intensified enforcement of planning laws to ensure that buildings within Lagos State are designed, constructed, and maintained to a high standard of safety. Their enforcement efforts have led to numerous building demolitions and are primarily targeted at three recurring violations across the state, which we will be discussing below.
- Lack of building development permit:
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Failure to obtain required development permits remains one of the most common triggers for demolition across Lagos. Under Section 27(1) of the Lagos State Urban and Regional Planning and Development Law, no building is allowed to be erected across the state, except when necessary permits and approvals have been duly sought and obtained. “No person shall carry out any development in Lagos State without obtaining a permit from the relevant planning authority.” Non-compliance with section 27(1) of the Lagos State Urban and Regional Planning and Development Law authorises the state government to demolish any building that has not sought and obtained the necessary approvals. Despite this clear guideline, unauthorised construction continues to proliferate in the state. In a recent enforcement action, 13 illegal buildingswere demolished in Lagos for non-compliance, highlighting the Government’s resolve to clamp down on developments that violate planning regulations. Several factors may explain why some developers bypass the approval process, including a lack of awareness of regulatory requirements, the perceived complexity or delay in obtaining permits, and, in some cases, a calculated risk to evade official fees or oversight. While these issues don’t justify non-compliance, they underscore the need for continued public education, transparency, and reform of the permitting process.
- Encroachment on Drainage Channels and Setbacks:
Building on drainage channels and designated setbacks stands out as one of the leading causes of demolition across Lagos. This issue not only breaches planning regulations but has also contributed to environmental and public safety risks.The Lagos State Building Control Agency(LASBCA) mandates a minimum setback of nine (9) meters for residential buildings in high-density, flood-prone zonessuch as Victoria Island, Apapa, and the Lekki Peninsula Schemes I and II. Despite these regulations, many developers have reclaimed and erected structures directly on waterways, obstructing water flow and increasing the risk of flooding. Recently, the Lagos state government marked 39 buildingsfor demolition in the Eti-Osa Local Government Area (mostly along the Ikota corridor) for obstructing drainage channels and encroaching.Similar actions have been taken in other areas like Amuwo Odofin. These demolitions have left many homeowners devastated. In response, affected owners have petitioned the government through their community associations, while others seek court injunctions to challenge the demolition or delay it pending clarification of their land status. Urban experts, however, emphasise the need for property buyers to secure proper planning permits from the Lagos StatePhysical Planning Permit Authority(LASPPPA) before embarking on any building or development project within the state.In many cases, properties built on canals, drainage channels, or government-designated right-of-way have little to no legal standing, making it difficult for affected owners to obtain compensation or favourable rulings in court. This is because such developments typically contravene established planning laws and are considered public safety hazards. We love your feedback. Let us know what you think about this article or your experience renting in Africa by sending an email toadvisory@fortrenandcompany.com. You can also join the conversation here onLinkedIn.
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